This study offers a new theoretical perspective on the pursuit of risky careers. We derive our insights from the connection between early callings and career pursuit, and from the mediating role of perceived and actual abilities in this link. In a seven-year, four-wave longitudinal study of 450 musicians, we found that over time, people with stronger early callings were likely to perceive their abilities especially favourably and to consequently pursue music professionally, whereas those with weaker early callings were likely to perceive their abilities less favourably and thus were less likely to pursue music professionally—regardless of their objective musical ability.

These results have implications for theory and research on the nature and consequences of calling, factors that relate to professional-ability perceptions and effective career decision making.